UNP - Approaching Price Target

UNP is approaching our price target of $138 and consistent with the rules, 50% of the position will be sold at the price of 138.

Housing and Mortgage Shorts

They are certainly testing the internal fortitude of this blogger. The P&F charts have turned up in a few of these cases and we are int he process of determining which positions stay and which are going to go.

DHI is the strongest of the lot while ABK is the weakest. Stay tuned.

DELL - Stopped Out

It has been a while since the positions have been updated.

DELL, after its less than stellar earnings on November 30th has been sold from the model portfolio based on the original trade parameters.

BNI - Gone

Stopped out of BNI this morning at $83.

BNI - Change in Parameters

BNI has broken a triple bottom that was formed at 84 and the trade parameters have changed as a result. There is now a downside target and the trade will be closed at $83 if the level is breached again.

Housing Earnings

DHI reported earnings this morning, initially they were well received. However, folks seem ready to break the stocks. The Housing Index broke its prior low and although it rebounded at the end of the day, this index looks to head closer to 110 at a minimum.

We will keep an eye on the Fed as always since an ease by them will certainly cause another squeeze. However, it will be worth sticking with these shorts through the volatility.

Weekend Activities

This weekend, we will be taking a hard look at the weighting of the model portfolio as we have quite a large mix of shorts concentrated into a few troubled sectors. The temptation is there to add to the DHI short to raise the exposure to the equivalent of the MTG and BZH positions given the weakness in the HGX index.

From a P&F perspective, the HGX index has downside to at least 126 from its current perch of 144, but the damage to this group is so severe, we expect to see the HGX closer to 100 very soon unless there is some serious help from the Fed.

As always, we will take our overall look at the market to assess the level of opportunities that may exist on the long side. When going long in this environment, it will pay to think short term and try to play the bounces that will occur in RIMM, AAPL, GOOG and similar past winners.

Short Executions from Thursday

Based on the trade parameters set on Thursday morning, the following executions occurred in the model portfolio:

Short 100 shares of BZH at 10.10
Short 50 shares of MBI at $38
Short 100 shares of ABK at $30
Short 200 shares of MTG at $23

A couple of the above were added slightly under the targets set for the trade but the downside is so great that the cost of not entering the trade was too great.

BZH - Adding to short

Will add 100 shares to the BZH short position anywhere above $10.

Layer in more shorts

Adding another 50 shares to the MBI short around $39.75 and shorting 100 shares of ABK at a target of $30.

Also will add a short position of 200 shares of MTG aroud $23.50.

All targets are in the low single digits.

TBSI - Position Closed at $47

TBSI - Getting Creamed

TBSI took it on the chin yesterday like most other momentum names. While weare glad we sold two lots of 100 shares much higher from here, our worst fears have been realized. The stock is broken and the position will be closed out today on a pending bounce.

Gap Positive News Flow Trickling In

Yesterday, The Gap announced that while its October same store sales were quite lackluster (down 8% vs. the down 4.5% forecast), margins have improved. The stock's reaction was very positive and it is this type of trading behavior that leads to higher prices.

More Shorts

Once the market bounces a bit, additional short positions will be initiated or added to. MBI will be added to and one (or more) of the following short positions will be initiated:

MTG, ABK, RDN, WM

UPS - Gone

UPS hit our stop point of $72 on Wednesday and was removed from the model portfolio. This opens up some more cash - most likely to go into the retail sector based on how the charts are shaping up.

Watch the Gap

Retail positions need to be established when everyone thinks the game is over - which is now. One stock that has held up remarkably well is The Gap (GPS). This is a strong indicator that they will profit once the rate cuts take hold. Also of note, when you walk through the Gap's stores, it is clear that they have finally figured out that they need to go back to their core business of basics, and becoming the source of jeans again.

While a turnaround in sales will take some time to take hold, we would not be surprised if this holding became a core position in this portfolio.

The initial trade parameters are 300 shares at an entry at $18.75 with a target of $24 and a stop in at $17 (Decent UD of 3). However, this position could easily turn into a triple if in fact they are reversing the trend of 6 years of declining sales.

BZH Update

The short position trade parameters are still intact and we are considering adding another 100 shares to this short given the current squeeze and the fact that they suspended its dividend payout. This is not a suspension of the payout, but an elimination of it because the company is in serious trouble.

Will add 100 shares to the short at $11.00.

Starting the Shorts

We are getting a nice short squeeze on some of the mortgage insurers and started a short position in MBIA (MBI) at $36.50. 50 shares were sold short in the model portfolio. The stop order goes in at $41.50 and the price target is $1 - that is not a misprint.

Buy STX

Bought 200 shares of Seagate (STX) at $27.92. Price Target is $45.50, stop goes in at $25.50.

I am Thirsty

So 200 shares of Coca Cola Enterprises (CCE) at $25.70. The upside target for the stock is $39 and there is limited downside - stop goes in at $23.50.

New Positions to Be Established This Week

A number of new positions will be established in the model portfolio during the week of 11/5. They will be from both the long and short side as there are opportunities for each.

TBSI - Ringing the Register Again

The TBSI position was cut in half on Friday - sale of 100 shares at $60.50. The chart is showing a downside target of $49 at the moment and the gains need to be preserved. The last 100 shares will be held until further notice.

Positions Stopped Out

TXN at $31 on 10/23
NBR at $27 on 10/30

Wrong About Things Changing

The KBH and CF shorts should not have been closed. Lesson Learned - stick with the trade if the parameters you set upon opening were not violated.

MEDX Long - Stop Executed at $14

Things have changed

While the charts have not yet been violated, the short exposure to the homebuilders was reduced on Friday with the covering trades as follows:

KBH - covered at $29
CFC - covered at $20.15

The DHI and BZH short positions remain as the trade parameters are still intact.

SYY - Covered

SYY hit the stop point of $35 and the trade was closed out at a small loss. The stock actually looks like it may have some upside in it but more analysis is required.

9/24 Executions as Planned

All of the suggested model portfolio positions were executed on Monday. They are as follows:

TXN - Buy 200 @ 36.65
UPS - Buy 100 @ 75.75
BNI - Buy 100 @ 81.25
UNP - Buy 50 @ 112

Turned Around - Let's Start Shopping

Bullish Percent Chart Updates:

DJ Transports - In Bull Alert status at 40, start buying.
S&P 500 - Moved to Bull Confirmed on Wed. the 19th, start buying.
DJ Industrials - Moved to Bull Confirmed on Thurs the 20th, percent is high, but buyable.

The above BP charts are the most attractive, the Energy Sector has already sprinted to 80%, so those stocks can be purchased on the pullback. The NASDAQ Composite chart is developing, but the tech sector overall is lagging a bit - although you would not knwo it by watching AMZN, AAPL, RIMM and GOOG.

The following buys will be initiated:

Union Pacific (UNP) - Buy price of $112 with a target of 138 and downside risk of 104 provides a solid UD of over 3. 50 shares will be added to the model portfolio.

Burlington Northern (BNI) - This trade will be tighter than normal as the chart is only 2.5 points away from the stop point of 79. The entry of 81.5 and a target of 96 provides a UD of close to 6. As a result, a heavier weighting of 100 shares will be added to the model portfolio.

United Parcel Service (UPS) - Our last transport play with an entry point of under $76. The stop point is 72 and the target is 97 for a UD of 5.25. 100 shares will be added to the model portfolio if executed.

Texas Instruments (TXN) - Traded strong on Friday and is ready to roll to the upside, a target of $60. The entry point will be around 36.50 and the stop point is at $31 providing a UD ratio in excess of 4. 200 shares to be added to the model portfolio.

FYI - NBR looks ready to roll, would not be surprised to see it appreciably higher a few weeks from now.

All of the homebuilder shorts are still in good shape according to the P&F charts - with or without the fed, these will work.

Stopped out on One, Two Others Close

On Friday the 14th, the LRCX position was stopped out as a quintuple bottom was broken on the P&F chart. The stock has since recovered but we deal with the execution and move on.

A couple of the positions are close to stopping points - MEDX at $14 and the SYY short at $35 - both look like they will get executed this week but we will keep a close watch.

Market Thoughts

BP Chart Summary:

S&P Utilities - Close to collapse
DJTA - Actually in Bull Alert status - but most likely a relief rally that will turn back down.
S&P Telecom - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to turn down
S&P Consumer Staples - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to turn down
S&P 500 - In Bear Correction Mode, at resistance - important inflection point to monitor
NYSE Composite - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to meet resistance given the high concentration in financials.
NASDAQ 100 - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to meet resistance
S&P Materials - In Bull Alert - as bright a spot as any out there right now (save energy)
S&P Info Technology - Just moved to bear confirmed - Looking to put on short positions
DJIA - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to meet resistance
S&P Healthcare - In Bear Correction Mode, has some upside for the time being
S&P Financials - Actually in Bull Correction Mode, but the underlying charts look weak. More research required to render an opinion
S&P Energy - Bull Confirmed Status - can be long energy stocks now, can initiate some small positions
S&P Consumer Discretionary - In Bull Alert, has some upside for the time being
NASDAQ Composite - Just moved into Bear Confirmed - Ordinarily this is where you would look to initiate shorts, but since the chart is already at the 39 level, the downside is a limited.

What does all this mean - the overall atmosphere is that while there is some upside there, the next leg is down. You can position yourself with some longs in the energy sector and a nuch of shorts from the other sectors.

As always, monitoring these charts will alert us to when the bias should shift to long. Since the Fed looks as if it is being backed into a corner hear, the turn could be swift.

Additional Short Positions Put On

On Friday, the following short positions were added to the model portfolio:

Short 200 shares of KBH at $28.
Short 300 shares of DHI at $14.25
Short 400 shares of BZH at $9.75

Here is the rationale for all of the above - the charts on the above homebuilders are all signaling the potential for the stocks to go to zero. That's right zero. With stops placed at $35, $18 and $11.5, the UD ratios are very attractive.

The above trades are putting a lot of stock in the collapse of homebuilders and finance companies, since we already have CFC as a short position in the portfolio. There are times however when it is prudent to put 'a good portion' of your eggs in one basket. This is one of those times. Go read the HOV earnings (or lack thereof) report if you need more convincing.

Another way to play the downfall of these stock is to buy some longer dated out of the money puts. The premiums are high, but if you go out into the March/April timeframe, you could absolutely make a killing.

TBSI - Starting to Ring the Register

Since the BP% charts are still weak, the TBSI position was pruned from 300 down to 200 shares. 100 shares sold out of the model portfolio on Friday at $38.

KSS - Stopped Out

First things First- the KSS position was stopped out at $54, pretty early in the morning on Friday.

Interesting Week - Position Updates

Regrets for establishing the KSS position early in the week were many, but it closed out the week in strong fashion. Retail is still vulnerable but putting one trade on made sense.

In reality, we should have initiated the IBM long this week as well instead of simply watching it go higher each day. Will look for a better entry point in that name as there is still plenty of upside left.

NBR - Still hanging tough. the Energy BP% chart has turned up and issued a buy signal after a break of the 34 level. A buy setup like that usually means get on board for a strong rally and as a result, a couple of additional energy picks will be established this week.

TBSI - We are going to monitor this position closely as the chart has turned negative.


On the short side, we thought twice about the CFC short and have decided to stick with it. The adjusted price target based on the recent chart activity is 0. How can you argue with that risk reward? All of the homebuilder stocks have been hanging tough, but they have a lot more downside. Several will be added to the model portfolio to gain exposure to the brusting of this bubble.

Retail Chances

Retail looks to have put in a bottom last week and we will look to play a short term bounce with KSS.

Entry under $59.25, stop at $54, target close to $80 - UD slightly under 4

75 shares will be added to the model portfolio if executed.

Overall Market Comments

By now, you realize that when there is talk of the overall markets on this blog, it relates to the Bullish Percent Charts. There has been a fairly significant turn of events in those charts back to bullish in certain industries - Financials and Energy in particular. However, the major market BP charts are still mixed (S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Comp).

Since the turn has been from outright bearish toward the neutral end, we are going to search for buys now more so than short sales. That being said, the housing industry charts are still a problem and as a result we may initiate a short in that group this week.

Position Updates

The Bullish Percent chart of the financials has turned back up and the CFC charts appears to have put in a bottom, at least temporarily. Our target of $15 proved a tad too aggressive for the panic that set in on Thursday the 16th. We will monitor this position closely and aim to close it out on Monday around the $21 mark.

SYY - This will be the week where we either declare victory on this one, or wave it goodbye. There is clearly resistance at the $34 level but usually when a stock knocks this many times on that proverbial door, it is going to bust through. Stick with the short trade until $35 is hit.

MEDX looks ready to bust out to the upside.

JPM Short Executed, then stopped out

On Wednesday 8/15, the JPM short position was forced on at 43.45. While in the back of my head I was violating one of my trading rules to NOT chase trades, I did so anyway. 2 days later, we were stopped out at $48. The trading on that day was extremely volatile to the upside and the $48 level has not been approached since, but it is best to put this one behind us with a small loss.

See next posts - the financials have repaired themselves to the point where they are now buyable.

Executions and another JPM miss

On Monday two of the targets were hit, resulting in short positions on SYY and PMI. PMI played out as expected an the position was initiated at 41.25. SYY released solid earnings and gapped open higher at the opening and allowed for an entry price of 33.75.

We narrowly missed out on JPM again, the tarrget short price being 45.50. The stock traded to 45.40 and backed right off - right strategy, needed to be more aggressive. Need to get more aggressive with this one and put out the short anywhere above $43 a the downside risk in this stock is palpable.

IBM holding strong in the chaos.

Ideas for This Week

Since all of the Bullish Percent Charts are still screaming defense and shorts, the following situations will be monitoring and executed if the target entry points are hit:

JPM (Short) - Financials remain the weakest group, had this on the radar to put out at $47 but missed the opportunity. However, this still remains a tasty short option at an entry of $45.50. The stop point would be 48 and the target is 35 for a UD of 5.2. Will short 150 shares in the model portfolio if hit.

SYY (Short) - Sysco is releasing earnings on Monday morning so this stock may have an interesting open point. However, the chart is weak and the trade setup is sweet should we get executed at $31.50 or higher. Assuming an entry of $31.50, with a stop point of 35 and a target of 16, the UD is a solid 5.4. Will short 150 shares in the model portfolio if hit.

PMI (Short) - Financial and mortgage exposure - ouch. This trade setup is sweet should we get executed at $30 or higher. Assuming an entry of $30, with a stop point of 35 and a target of 14, the UD is a solid 4.2. Will short 125 shares in the model portfolio if hit.

IBM (Long) - Tech remains the lone bright spot in this market. OK, maybe it is not so bright, just a dim light at this point, but the IBM chart is set up for a run above $150. The stock needs to trade a little more at these levels to provide a very clear downside exit point and will be one of the first considered when the Bullish Percent charts tick up.

Position Comment CFC

While the CFC short position is yielding a minor profit at the current time, the fact that the market cannot break this stock and that the most recent candles are all white are leading to the opinion that the profits in this trade will not be as easy as originally thought. Will keep monitoring.

Portfolio Updates

Quite a volatile week - there were some close calls and a violent reversal, but for the most part the portfolio remains intact and in good shape.

SNHY - Somebody said something they should not have on their earnings conference call because all of the momentum players turned and headed for the hills. Stop executed at $25.75. We will keep an eye on this one as the fundamentals remain really strong.

Lots of positions are close to the stop levels (NBR, ADBE, DELL), but they held and remain open for now.

TBSI - since the stock has run up quite a bit and the P&F chart has issued a 'high pole warning', the stop level on this position is being moved up to $33 as we need to play some defense.

Bye to TXRH

Earnings on Monday evening for Texas Roadhouse did not excite Wall Street. Our stop was executed at $12 on Tuesday.

Straight Talk

OK - here is the straight talk - the market is in trouble. There are very few industries which warrant the risk of establishing new positions. Currently, the only possibilities for new longs are in the tech arena - specifically computers (DELL, HPQ) and semiconductor equipment (LRCX, KLAC, CYMI and BRKS). However, given this climate, the only side of the ball we are playing as of July 30th is the short side. On the next bounce, which will occur early this week, we will establish short positions in at least one more financial - most likely JPM. There are too many other industries from which to choose shorts, and hopefully the picture will clear up as the week develops.

The big problem we have now is that all of the Bullish Percent charts are signaling Bear. The only industry/indices not in Bear Mode are as follows:

S&P Information Technology, NASDAQ Composite.

Take your pick on the rest of the market - everything from Financials to Consumer Staples, they are all primed for shorts - even Energy (Oils, etc.).

For those who need a primer on the Bullish Percent Charts, I strongly recommend picking up Thomas Dorsey's book on Point and Figure Charting.

Executions from Thursday and Friday

As planned, our trades were executed on Thursday as follows:

Short 250 shares of CFC at $29.25
Buy 200 shares of DELL at $28.75

In addition, due to the poor performance and meltdown last week, the following positions were closed as our stop orders were hit:

Sell 150 shares of RRGB at $39.75 - doesn't change the fact that I love their burgers.

TXRH releases earnings on Tuesday. With restaurant after restaurant finding the woodshed, we need to monitor that position as well.

Given the outlook for natural gas, we will need to keep a close eye on NBR as it is approaching the stop of $27.

Executions - Short and Long

Our trades were initiated on Thursday as follows:

Short 250 shares of CFC at $29.20.
Buy 200 shares of DELL at $28.75

CFC Short Update

While it will reduce our UD ratio a bit, the target for initiating the CFC short will be between $29 and $29.25, the stock looks to be opening down and we will not have an opportunity near $30.

Going to Start Wearing Shorts (And Another Long)

The current volatility sure makes the market a fun place to be. I suppose that will depend on how much pain you are enduring at the present time. The recent trading has setup a number of opportunities on both sides of the ledger. Today we will initiate our first short position and establish one more long. They are as follows:

(Short) CFC - Countrywide Financial is telling us that business is not just marginally bad, they are not even sure how bad it is. Couple this backdrop with the Financials Bullish Percent Chart's recent turn into Bear Confirmed status means it is the optimum time to put on some financial shorts. We will look to short 250 shares of CFC at the $30 level (frankly if it opens higher today we will want to execute the trade close to the market open). The downside on the short position is a very conservative $34 (although we cannot see how the stock rises to even the $32 level). The price target is $15 for a UD ratio of 3.75.

(Long) DELL - Perhaps Michael Dell is David Blaine in disguise. Ever since he re-appeared at the helm of DELL the company and the stock have moved forward. Granted, it is not at the lightning fast pace over the late 90's, but up and up nonetheless. While we would love to wait for a lower buy point, this position will be intitiated at a target of $28.75. We will allocate 200 shares. The downside is at $25.50 and the upside target is $44, a solid UD of 4.7.

More shorts to come over the next few trading days. While it is the optimum time to short JPM and a number of other financials, the P&F charts are not yet set up properly. Always stick to your trading rules as discipline is of paramount importance.

Stay calm.

Four Buys Executed, As Well As One Sell

Let's start with the SELL - NYX convincing broke the stop at $80, the position was removed at a price of $79.10.

Per our previous post, the following names were added:

TBSI - 300 shares added at $22 3/4
SNHY - 150 shares added at 44 1/4
MEDX - 300 shares added at $15.15
LRCX - 125 shares added at 53 3/4.

Next up for inclusion in the Portfolio is HANS or YUM - choices, choices.

Several New Buys

On Monday the 18th we will be adding several new names to the portfolio as there are a bunch of attractive chart patterns out there. They are as follows:

We will start with TBS International (TBSI). A transport services company, this chart is showing signs of real potential explosion. Our buy point is around the $23 level, with a target of $60 and a stop to be placed at $20, the risk reward is outstanding. The UD ratio stands at 14.8. We will add 300 shares.

Next is Sun Hydraulics (SNHY). A provider of construction equipment, their business is booming. We will aim to buy this one under $45 with a target of $90. The stop loss on the trade is 40, providing a solid UD ratio of 9. We will add 150 shares

In the third slot is Medarex (MEDX). This mid-size drug company's chart has the feel of a big run occurring. Percentage-wise the return is attractive, an upside target of $27 based on a purchase price of around $15 1/2. The stop order goes in at $14, providing a UD ratio of 7.6. We will add 300 shares.

Finally, let's talk about Lam Research (LRCX). This maker of semiconductor equipment should be going down as there has not been a lot of positive news on semiconductor spending. Perhaps the diversification into the solar markets is beginning to pay dividends. However, my belief is that something bigger is happening in the industry. All of the charts look solid, even buyable, an indication of a reversal in trend. The semi-equip stocks are stock you need to buy when business is at its worse because if you catch the turn, the rewards are large and fast. The buy price for LRCX will be anywhere under $54 with a target of 80. The stop goes in at $50 for a UD of 6.5. 125 shares will be added.

Note that others in the group that look good but do not have the setup for immediate purchase are AEIS, KLAC and BRKS.

Stay the course on the other positions. NYX is in danger of getting kicked out as we will continue to monitor it as it is right on the stop line.

Closing the AAPL Position

Perhaps we are nit-picking here, but we are going to close out the AAPL position 75 cents early - at $123.25. Still a tidy gain from the entry of $92.75.

This will give us a nice cash inflow to redploy shortly.

AAPL Update

While AAPL continues to ride higher, I am reiterating the point that we will stick to our methodology and close the position when the stock reaches $124. Hopefully we will get that additional push higher.

Stockalicious Update #2

I have gotten the account back in line. All is well with the blog widget for now.

Stockalicious Update

While I love the idea, I may need to resort to embedding my own spreadsheet as the Stockalicious Website is starting to frustrate me. Please note that the portfolio should be approx. $6,400 higher as my cash balance is understated due to a system issue. Perhaps it is a user error - but I would never admit to that!

Portfolio Updates

AAPL - The stock will not quit - stay the course.
ADBE - Issued another buy signal on the P&F at $43 - stay the course. Earnings mid-month.
NBR - Chart is looking great, expect a small pullback but then it is off to the races.
NYX - The stock briefly violated our downside limit but pushed back into a new buy signal. The updise target now has been reduced to the $105 level.
RRGB - On Friday the 25th RRGB benefited from positive earnings and an upgrade. It was nice to see the gap upside - the trade remains on track.
TXRH - Stock finds itself stuck with a $14 handle. Not looking good or bad - stay the course.
UA - Stock hit our downside target of $43 on Wed 5/16 and was removed. Too bad as it quickly reversed course and haeaded higher.

Correction - NBR trade on Thurs 5/3 executed at $32, not $42

NYX Added

We added NYX at an entry price of $85. There appears to be solid support around the 83 and 84 levels.

Adding NYX

On Friday we will be adding NYSE Euronext (NYX) to the model portfolio. Our target entry price is under $85. This trade has a Downside of $80 and an Upside of $138 for a solid UD Ratio slightly higher than 10.

We have a new Nabor

100 shares of NBR was added to the Model Portfolio at a price of $42. Earnings were released tonight and were strong despite a number of challenges. This release should add a little distance between our entry point and the downside stop.

We have a new Nabor

100 shares of NBR was added to the Model Portfolio at a price of $42. Earnings were released tonight and were strong despite a number of challenges. This release should add a little distance between our entry point and the downside stop.

NBR - Get Back Into Oil

Nabors Industries (NBR), an oil service company has been in a downtrend since the beginning of 2006. That was broken in April and the stock has given a buy signal.

We will be looking to add 100 shares of NBR to the model portfolio today at the $32 level. With downside of $27 and upside of $42, our UD ratio is a 2, frankly the minimum UD that will even be considered. However, with the rest of the oil service group trading to the upside, we should be OK.

One Execution, More Patience for CC

We were able to get Under Armour (UA) into the model portfolio at $46 and will monitor it with the rest of the holdings.

Circuit City never got up to our $17 target for the short execution. Will remain patient on this one as I resist the urge to simply get the position into the model portfolio. With CC, I am also goign back a forth on whether to play this trade with put options as we can still limit our downside and charge our upside. More to come.

UA - Earnings Overreaction, Goo Long Opportunity

Under Armour Holding (UA) released earnings on Monday night and the stock was knocked down more than 4 points. This puts the stock right at the bottom of its support range on the P&F chart. We will be looking to get in the stock around the $46 level, most likely today with 100 share purchase.

The model portfolio will be slightly underweighted in this stock because the setup is less than ideal, but due to the limited downside ($43) and exciting upside ($70), a small position is in order. The UD for this trade is 8 and the site will be updated once the trade is executed.

CC - New Short Trade

We will hopefully be initiating our first short position in the model portfolio over the next couple of days with Circuit City. From a business perspective these guys are toast. Best Buy has eatne their lunch for many years and they honestly would be better off liquidating their business rather than trying to keep going.

From a chart perspective, yesterday the stock broke an uptrend line and triggered another double bottom sell signal. We will enter by selling 300 shares short when the stock hits $17. With a downside target of $7 and an upside stop of $19 1/2, our UD ratio is a solid 4.

Will update the site once the order is triggered.

TXRH Earnings - Quick Update

The earnings were good, 2 cents better than estimates, and the company backed their current fiscal year earnings estimates. Sales growth was strong and the stock reacted positively.

Week Ending 4/27 Update

Well, the AAPL trade did help the portfolio to a nice weekly gain. Their earnings continue to be mind-boggling and the momentum shows no signs of slowing down. Though I try to remove emotion from the equation (yeah right, as Red Robin and Texas Roadhouse show up in the portfolio), the current products plus the direction of where AAPL is moving (phones and TV) make this investment one that could remain for a while.

Through 4/27, the portfolio return stands at an acceptable 1.978%. Of course, we are only half invested.

Key dates for this week include the release of TXRH's earnings after the market close on Monday the 30th. Fingers are crossed as I will not speculate on the numbers without any thesis behind them.

This week there will be a couple of more longs added to the portfolio and I am also scouting a couple of shorts. While the current market environment is not really conducive to shorting stocks, there are always select opportunities to do so.

Less Than Perfect

The strength yesterday worked against me, but we did add the new positions to the sheets:

RRGB - 150 shares at $41 1/4
AAPL - 100 shares at $92 1/2 - chased this one when it became apparent that the $91 level was not going to be a possibility. THis entry price change the Up/Down ratio a little, but the risk/reward is still great.

Apples and Hamburgers

On Monday April 23rd, we are hopefully going to initiate two new positions.

The first one is Apple Inc. (AAPL) - like I need to give you the symbol. This particular trade is going to be played much tighter than a normal trade on the downside so it could be a quick one. However, if the charts work out the way I expect, this stock will not break $89 1/2 and has over 20 points of upside - the Up/Down Ratio is an 11. The trade will be closed out if the stock touches $89 and I will be looking for an upside price target of $124. Special note on the P&F chart - I am concerned with the High Pole formation that just occurred and that is the main reason for the extra tight stop.

I will look to initiate the purchase of 100 shares of the stock anywhere under the $91 level.

The second position for 4/23 is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. I want to be clear, I am not looking to buy this stock because I love their burgers (I really do). The business is growing at a really nice rate and the charts look good as the stock continues to recover from a prior earnings miss. The downside for this trade is at $39 3/4 and the upside target is $58 - for an Up/Down ratio of just over 13.5.

I will be patient on this one and look to initiate the position of 150 shares at a level between $41 and $41 1/4.

Enjoy the weather if you live in the Northeast.

Not Much To Update

As far as our current holding go, we have merely been running in place over the last couple of weeks. ADBE looks to have a solid foundation underneath it, we should hold strong because the tenets for the trade are still valid. TXRH, same comments apply.

Be patient, stick with the planned exit points.

Two Good Executions

Well, the market came in a bit and enabled us to get executed on both planned trades. The portfolio started at $50,000 and I will keep the position size around the 10% mark depending on confidence and the Up/Down rating.

Executed 300 shares of TXRH @ $14.20 - Total Cost of $4,260.00
Executed 150 sharees of ADBE @ $41.75 - Total Cost of $6,262.50

Anticipate ADBE

At times I will mix in an anticipated P&F break out in order to gain a little extra return in a trade. ADBE is going to be the inaugural PTS-A trade. We are anticipating a break out above $43 and the downside risk in the trade is very small.

Establishing the position on Monday April 2nd, looking for an entry price of $41.75, we will see if we get it. Price Objective is $52 and we need to cut our losses is we break below $38.

Our Up/Down Ratio for the trade is a strong 3.75 - I believe it is closer to a 5.62 because I see support at $39.50, but the P&F trade parameters officially make is a 3.75.

TXRH is Ready To Go

Been following TXRH for quite some time now and looking for our entry point. This is not just because I love their food - even the fried chicken - but the P&F chart began its new uptrend and has pulled back three boxes - always love the three Os.

Establishing the position on Monday April 2nd, looking at a specific entry point of $14.20, we will see if we get it. Price Objective is $23 and we need to cut our losses if a triple bottom sell is given at $12.

Our Up/Down Ratio for the trade is a 3.91 - high quality risk reward.

Bigger picture chart characteristics: Lots of support and congestion in the $12 1/2 -$14 range. $16 is obviously a big hurdle but we can afford to be patient.