Well, the AAPL trade did help the portfolio to a nice weekly gain. Their earnings continue to be mind-boggling and the momentum shows no signs of slowing down. Though I try to remove emotion from the equation (yeah right, as Red Robin and Texas Roadhouse show up in the portfolio), the current products plus the direction of where AAPL is moving (phones and TV) make this investment one that could remain for a while.
Through 4/27, the portfolio return stands at an acceptable 1.978%. Of course, we are only half invested.
Key dates for this week include the release of TXRH's earnings after the market close on Monday the 30th. Fingers are crossed as I will not speculate on the numbers without any thesis behind them.
This week there will be a couple of more longs added to the portfolio and I am also scouting a couple of shorts. While the current market environment is not really conducive to shorting stocks, there are always select opportunities to do so.
Sunday, April 29, 2007
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Less Than Perfect
The strength yesterday worked against me, but we did add the new positions to the sheets:
RRGB - 150 shares at $41 1/4
AAPL - 100 shares at $92 1/2 - chased this one when it became apparent that the $91 level was not going to be a possibility. THis entry price change the Up/Down ratio a little, but the risk/reward is still great.
RRGB - 150 shares at $41 1/4
AAPL - 100 shares at $92 1/2 - chased this one when it became apparent that the $91 level was not going to be a possibility. THis entry price change the Up/Down ratio a little, but the risk/reward is still great.
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Apples and Hamburgers
On Monday April 23rd, we are hopefully going to initiate two new positions.
The first one is Apple Inc. (AAPL) - like I need to give you the symbol. This particular trade is going to be played much tighter than a normal trade on the downside so it could be a quick one. However, if the charts work out the way I expect, this stock will not break $89 1/2 and has over 20 points of upside - the Up/Down Ratio is an 11. The trade will be closed out if the stock touches $89 and I will be looking for an upside price target of $124. Special note on the P&F chart - I am concerned with the High Pole formation that just occurred and that is the main reason for the extra tight stop.
I will look to initiate the purchase of 100 shares of the stock anywhere under the $91 level.
The second position for 4/23 is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. I want to be clear, I am not looking to buy this stock because I love their burgers (I really do). The business is growing at a really nice rate and the charts look good as the stock continues to recover from a prior earnings miss. The downside for this trade is at $39 3/4 and the upside target is $58 - for an Up/Down ratio of just over 13.5.
I will be patient on this one and look to initiate the position of 150 shares at a level between $41 and $41 1/4.
Enjoy the weather if you live in the Northeast.
The first one is Apple Inc. (AAPL) - like I need to give you the symbol. This particular trade is going to be played much tighter than a normal trade on the downside so it could be a quick one. However, if the charts work out the way I expect, this stock will not break $89 1/2 and has over 20 points of upside - the Up/Down Ratio is an 11. The trade will be closed out if the stock touches $89 and I will be looking for an upside price target of $124. Special note on the P&F chart - I am concerned with the High Pole formation that just occurred and that is the main reason for the extra tight stop.
I will look to initiate the purchase of 100 shares of the stock anywhere under the $91 level.
The second position for 4/23 is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. I want to be clear, I am not looking to buy this stock because I love their burgers (I really do). The business is growing at a really nice rate and the charts look good as the stock continues to recover from a prior earnings miss. The downside for this trade is at $39 3/4 and the upside target is $58 - for an Up/Down ratio of just over 13.5.
I will be patient on this one and look to initiate the position of 150 shares at a level between $41 and $41 1/4.
Enjoy the weather if you live in the Northeast.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Not Much To Update
As far as our current holding go, we have merely been running in place over the last couple of weeks. ADBE looks to have a solid foundation underneath it, we should hold strong because the tenets for the trade are still valid. TXRH, same comments apply.
Be patient, stick with the planned exit points.
Be patient, stick with the planned exit points.
Monday, April 2, 2007
Two Good Executions
Well, the market came in a bit and enabled us to get executed on both planned trades. The portfolio started at $50,000 and I will keep the position size around the 10% mark depending on confidence and the Up/Down rating.
Executed 300 shares of TXRH @ $14.20 - Total Cost of $4,260.00
Executed 150 sharees of ADBE @ $41.75 - Total Cost of $6,262.50
Executed 300 shares of TXRH @ $14.20 - Total Cost of $4,260.00
Executed 150 sharees of ADBE @ $41.75 - Total Cost of $6,262.50
Sunday, April 1, 2007
Anticipate ADBE
At times I will mix in an anticipated P&F break out in order to gain a little extra return in a trade. ADBE is going to be the inaugural PTS-A trade. We are anticipating a break out above $43 and the downside risk in the trade is very small.
Establishing the position on Monday April 2nd, looking for an entry price of $41.75, we will see if we get it. Price Objective is $52 and we need to cut our losses is we break below $38.
Our Up/Down Ratio for the trade is a strong 3.75 - I believe it is closer to a 5.62 because I see support at $39.50, but the P&F trade parameters officially make is a 3.75.
Establishing the position on Monday April 2nd, looking for an entry price of $41.75, we will see if we get it. Price Objective is $52 and we need to cut our losses is we break below $38.
Our Up/Down Ratio for the trade is a strong 3.75 - I believe it is closer to a 5.62 because I see support at $39.50, but the P&F trade parameters officially make is a 3.75.
TXRH is Ready To Go
Been following TXRH for quite some time now and looking for our entry point. This is not just because I love their food - even the fried chicken - but the P&F chart began its new uptrend and has pulled back three boxes - always love the three Os.
Establishing the position on Monday April 2nd, looking at a specific entry point of $14.20, we will see if we get it. Price Objective is $23 and we need to cut our losses if a triple bottom sell is given at $12.
Our Up/Down Ratio for the trade is a 3.91 - high quality risk reward.
Bigger picture chart characteristics: Lots of support and congestion in the $12 1/2 -$14 range. $16 is obviously a big hurdle but we can afford to be patient.
Establishing the position on Monday April 2nd, looking at a specific entry point of $14.20, we will see if we get it. Price Objective is $23 and we need to cut our losses if a triple bottom sell is given at $12.
Our Up/Down Ratio for the trade is a 3.91 - high quality risk reward.
Bigger picture chart characteristics: Lots of support and congestion in the $12 1/2 -$14 range. $16 is obviously a big hurdle but we can afford to be patient.
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