Thursday, May 31, 2007

AAPL Update

While AAPL continues to ride higher, I am reiterating the point that we will stick to our methodology and close the position when the stock reaches $124. Hopefully we will get that additional push higher.

Stockalicious Update #2

I have gotten the account back in line. All is well with the blog widget for now.

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Stockalicious Update

While I love the idea, I may need to resort to embedding my own spreadsheet as the Stockalicious Website is starting to frustrate me. Please note that the portfolio should be approx. $6,400 higher as my cash balance is understated due to a system issue. Perhaps it is a user error - but I would never admit to that!

Portfolio Updates

AAPL - The stock will not quit - stay the course.
ADBE - Issued another buy signal on the P&F at $43 - stay the course. Earnings mid-month.
NBR - Chart is looking great, expect a small pullback but then it is off to the races.
NYX - The stock briefly violated our downside limit but pushed back into a new buy signal. The updise target now has been reduced to the $105 level.
RRGB - On Friday the 25th RRGB benefited from positive earnings and an upgrade. It was nice to see the gap upside - the trade remains on track.
TXRH - Stock finds itself stuck with a $14 handle. Not looking good or bad - stay the course.
UA - Stock hit our downside target of $43 on Wed 5/16 and was removed. Too bad as it quickly reversed course and haeaded higher.

Sunday, May 6, 2007

Correction - NBR trade on Thurs 5/3 executed at $32, not $42

NYX Added

We added NYX at an entry price of $85. There appears to be solid support around the 83 and 84 levels.

Thursday, May 3, 2007

Adding NYX

On Friday we will be adding NYSE Euronext (NYX) to the model portfolio. Our target entry price is under $85. This trade has a Downside of $80 and an Upside of $138 for a solid UD Ratio slightly higher than 10.

We have a new Nabor

100 shares of NBR was added to the Model Portfolio at a price of $42. Earnings were released tonight and were strong despite a number of challenges. This release should add a little distance between our entry point and the downside stop.

We have a new Nabor

100 shares of NBR was added to the Model Portfolio at a price of $42. Earnings were released tonight and were strong despite a number of challenges. This release should add a little distance between our entry point and the downside stop.

NBR - Get Back Into Oil

Nabors Industries (NBR), an oil service company has been in a downtrend since the beginning of 2006. That was broken in April and the stock has given a buy signal.

We will be looking to add 100 shares of NBR to the model portfolio today at the $32 level. With downside of $27 and upside of $42, our UD ratio is a 2, frankly the minimum UD that will even be considered. However, with the rest of the oil service group trading to the upside, we should be OK.

One Execution, More Patience for CC

We were able to get Under Armour (UA) into the model portfolio at $46 and will monitor it with the rest of the holdings.

Circuit City never got up to our $17 target for the short execution. Will remain patient on this one as I resist the urge to simply get the position into the model portfolio. With CC, I am also goign back a forth on whether to play this trade with put options as we can still limit our downside and charge our upside. More to come.

Wednesday, May 2, 2007

UA - Earnings Overreaction, Goo Long Opportunity

Under Armour Holding (UA) released earnings on Monday night and the stock was knocked down more than 4 points. This puts the stock right at the bottom of its support range on the P&F chart. We will be looking to get in the stock around the $46 level, most likely today with 100 share purchase.

The model portfolio will be slightly underweighted in this stock because the setup is less than ideal, but due to the limited downside ($43) and exciting upside ($70), a small position is in order. The UD for this trade is 8 and the site will be updated once the trade is executed.

CC - New Short Trade

We will hopefully be initiating our first short position in the model portfolio over the next couple of days with Circuit City. From a business perspective these guys are toast. Best Buy has eatne their lunch for many years and they honestly would be better off liquidating their business rather than trying to keep going.

From a chart perspective, yesterday the stock broke an uptrend line and triggered another double bottom sell signal. We will enter by selling 300 shares short when the stock hits $17. With a downside target of $7 and an upside stop of $19 1/2, our UD ratio is a solid 4.

Will update the site once the order is triggered.

TXRH Earnings - Quick Update

The earnings were good, 2 cents better than estimates, and the company backed their current fiscal year earnings estimates. Sales growth was strong and the stock reacted positively.