Thursday, September 27, 2007
SYY - Covered
SYY hit the stop point of $35 and the trade was closed out at a small loss. The stock actually looks like it may have some upside in it but more analysis is required.
9/24 Executions as Planned
All of the suggested model portfolio positions were executed on Monday. They are as follows:
TXN - Buy 200 @ 36.65
UPS - Buy 100 @ 75.75
BNI - Buy 100 @ 81.25
UNP - Buy 50 @ 112
TXN - Buy 200 @ 36.65
UPS - Buy 100 @ 75.75
BNI - Buy 100 @ 81.25
UNP - Buy 50 @ 112
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Turned Around - Let's Start Shopping
Bullish Percent Chart Updates:
DJ Transports - In Bull Alert status at 40, start buying.
S&P 500 - Moved to Bull Confirmed on Wed. the 19th, start buying.
DJ Industrials - Moved to Bull Confirmed on Thurs the 20th, percent is high, but buyable.
The above BP charts are the most attractive, the Energy Sector has already sprinted to 80%, so those stocks can be purchased on the pullback. The NASDAQ Composite chart is developing, but the tech sector overall is lagging a bit - although you would not knwo it by watching AMZN, AAPL, RIMM and GOOG.
The following buys will be initiated:
Union Pacific (UNP) - Buy price of $112 with a target of 138 and downside risk of 104 provides a solid UD of over 3. 50 shares will be added to the model portfolio.
Burlington Northern (BNI) - This trade will be tighter than normal as the chart is only 2.5 points away from the stop point of 79. The entry of 81.5 and a target of 96 provides a UD of close to 6. As a result, a heavier weighting of 100 shares will be added to the model portfolio.
United Parcel Service (UPS) - Our last transport play with an entry point of under $76. The stop point is 72 and the target is 97 for a UD of 5.25. 100 shares will be added to the model portfolio if executed.
Texas Instruments (TXN) - Traded strong on Friday and is ready to roll to the upside, a target of $60. The entry point will be around 36.50 and the stop point is at $31 providing a UD ratio in excess of 4. 200 shares to be added to the model portfolio.
FYI - NBR looks ready to roll, would not be surprised to see it appreciably higher a few weeks from now.
All of the homebuilder shorts are still in good shape according to the P&F charts - with or without the fed, these will work.
DJ Transports - In Bull Alert status at 40, start buying.
S&P 500 - Moved to Bull Confirmed on Wed. the 19th, start buying.
DJ Industrials - Moved to Bull Confirmed on Thurs the 20th, percent is high, but buyable.
The above BP charts are the most attractive, the Energy Sector has already sprinted to 80%, so those stocks can be purchased on the pullback. The NASDAQ Composite chart is developing, but the tech sector overall is lagging a bit - although you would not knwo it by watching AMZN, AAPL, RIMM and GOOG.
The following buys will be initiated:
Union Pacific (UNP) - Buy price of $112 with a target of 138 and downside risk of 104 provides a solid UD of over 3. 50 shares will be added to the model portfolio.
Burlington Northern (BNI) - This trade will be tighter than normal as the chart is only 2.5 points away from the stop point of 79. The entry of 81.5 and a target of 96 provides a UD of close to 6. As a result, a heavier weighting of 100 shares will be added to the model portfolio.
United Parcel Service (UPS) - Our last transport play with an entry point of under $76. The stop point is 72 and the target is 97 for a UD of 5.25. 100 shares will be added to the model portfolio if executed.
Texas Instruments (TXN) - Traded strong on Friday and is ready to roll to the upside, a target of $60. The entry point will be around 36.50 and the stop point is at $31 providing a UD ratio in excess of 4. 200 shares to be added to the model portfolio.
FYI - NBR looks ready to roll, would not be surprised to see it appreciably higher a few weeks from now.
All of the homebuilder shorts are still in good shape according to the P&F charts - with or without the fed, these will work.
Stopped out on One, Two Others Close
On Friday the 14th, the LRCX position was stopped out as a quintuple bottom was broken on the P&F chart. The stock has since recovered but we deal with the execution and move on.
A couple of the positions are close to stopping points - MEDX at $14 and the SYY short at $35 - both look like they will get executed this week but we will keep a close watch.
A couple of the positions are close to stopping points - MEDX at $14 and the SYY short at $35 - both look like they will get executed this week but we will keep a close watch.
Saturday, September 8, 2007
Market Thoughts
BP Chart Summary:
S&P Utilities - Close to collapse
DJTA - Actually in Bull Alert status - but most likely a relief rally that will turn back down.
S&P Telecom - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to turn down
S&P Consumer Staples - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to turn down
S&P 500 - In Bear Correction Mode, at resistance - important inflection point to monitor
NYSE Composite - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to meet resistance given the high concentration in financials.
NASDAQ 100 - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to meet resistance
S&P Materials - In Bull Alert - as bright a spot as any out there right now (save energy)
S&P Info Technology - Just moved to bear confirmed - Looking to put on short positions
DJIA - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to meet resistance
S&P Healthcare - In Bear Correction Mode, has some upside for the time being
S&P Financials - Actually in Bull Correction Mode, but the underlying charts look weak. More research required to render an opinion
S&P Energy - Bull Confirmed Status - can be long energy stocks now, can initiate some small positions
S&P Consumer Discretionary - In Bull Alert, has some upside for the time being
NASDAQ Composite - Just moved into Bear Confirmed - Ordinarily this is where you would look to initiate shorts, but since the chart is already at the 39 level, the downside is a limited.
What does all this mean - the overall atmosphere is that while there is some upside there, the next leg is down. You can position yourself with some longs in the energy sector and a nuch of shorts from the other sectors.
As always, monitoring these charts will alert us to when the bias should shift to long. Since the Fed looks as if it is being backed into a corner hear, the turn could be swift.
S&P Utilities - Close to collapse
DJTA - Actually in Bull Alert status - but most likely a relief rally that will turn back down.
S&P Telecom - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to turn down
S&P Consumer Staples - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to turn down
S&P 500 - In Bear Correction Mode, at resistance - important inflection point to monitor
NYSE Composite - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to meet resistance given the high concentration in financials.
NASDAQ 100 - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to meet resistance
S&P Materials - In Bull Alert - as bright a spot as any out there right now (save energy)
S&P Info Technology - Just moved to bear confirmed - Looking to put on short positions
DJIA - In Bear Correction Mode, likely to meet resistance
S&P Healthcare - In Bear Correction Mode, has some upside for the time being
S&P Financials - Actually in Bull Correction Mode, but the underlying charts look weak. More research required to render an opinion
S&P Energy - Bull Confirmed Status - can be long energy stocks now, can initiate some small positions
S&P Consumer Discretionary - In Bull Alert, has some upside for the time being
NASDAQ Composite - Just moved into Bear Confirmed - Ordinarily this is where you would look to initiate shorts, but since the chart is already at the 39 level, the downside is a limited.
What does all this mean - the overall atmosphere is that while there is some upside there, the next leg is down. You can position yourself with some longs in the energy sector and a nuch of shorts from the other sectors.
As always, monitoring these charts will alert us to when the bias should shift to long. Since the Fed looks as if it is being backed into a corner hear, the turn could be swift.
Additional Short Positions Put On
On Friday, the following short positions were added to the model portfolio:
Short 200 shares of KBH at $28.
Short 300 shares of DHI at $14.25
Short 400 shares of BZH at $9.75
Here is the rationale for all of the above - the charts on the above homebuilders are all signaling the potential for the stocks to go to zero. That's right zero. With stops placed at $35, $18 and $11.5, the UD ratios are very attractive.
The above trades are putting a lot of stock in the collapse of homebuilders and finance companies, since we already have CFC as a short position in the portfolio. There are times however when it is prudent to put 'a good portion' of your eggs in one basket. This is one of those times. Go read the HOV earnings (or lack thereof) report if you need more convincing.
Another way to play the downfall of these stock is to buy some longer dated out of the money puts. The premiums are high, but if you go out into the March/April timeframe, you could absolutely make a killing.
Short 200 shares of KBH at $28.
Short 300 shares of DHI at $14.25
Short 400 shares of BZH at $9.75
Here is the rationale for all of the above - the charts on the above homebuilders are all signaling the potential for the stocks to go to zero. That's right zero. With stops placed at $35, $18 and $11.5, the UD ratios are very attractive.
The above trades are putting a lot of stock in the collapse of homebuilders and finance companies, since we already have CFC as a short position in the portfolio. There are times however when it is prudent to put 'a good portion' of your eggs in one basket. This is one of those times. Go read the HOV earnings (or lack thereof) report if you need more convincing.
Another way to play the downfall of these stock is to buy some longer dated out of the money puts. The premiums are high, but if you go out into the March/April timeframe, you could absolutely make a killing.
TBSI - Starting to Ring the Register
Since the BP% charts are still weak, the TBSI position was pruned from 300 down to 200 shares. 100 shares sold out of the model portfolio on Friday at $38.
KSS - Stopped Out
First things First- the KSS position was stopped out at $54, pretty early in the morning on Friday.
Saturday, September 1, 2007
Interesting Week - Position Updates
Regrets for establishing the KSS position early in the week were many, but it closed out the week in strong fashion. Retail is still vulnerable but putting one trade on made sense.
In reality, we should have initiated the IBM long this week as well instead of simply watching it go higher each day. Will look for a better entry point in that name as there is still plenty of upside left.
NBR - Still hanging tough. the Energy BP% chart has turned up and issued a buy signal after a break of the 34 level. A buy setup like that usually means get on board for a strong rally and as a result, a couple of additional energy picks will be established this week.
TBSI - We are going to monitor this position closely as the chart has turned negative.
On the short side, we thought twice about the CFC short and have decided to stick with it. The adjusted price target based on the recent chart activity is 0. How can you argue with that risk reward? All of the homebuilder stocks have been hanging tough, but they have a lot more downside. Several will be added to the model portfolio to gain exposure to the brusting of this bubble.
In reality, we should have initiated the IBM long this week as well instead of simply watching it go higher each day. Will look for a better entry point in that name as there is still plenty of upside left.
NBR - Still hanging tough. the Energy BP% chart has turned up and issued a buy signal after a break of the 34 level. A buy setup like that usually means get on board for a strong rally and as a result, a couple of additional energy picks will be established this week.
TBSI - We are going to monitor this position closely as the chart has turned negative.
On the short side, we thought twice about the CFC short and have decided to stick with it. The adjusted price target based on the recent chart activity is 0. How can you argue with that risk reward? All of the homebuilder stocks have been hanging tough, but they have a lot more downside. Several will be added to the model portfolio to gain exposure to the brusting of this bubble.
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