BNI at $84.25, 75 shares.
MA at $186.75, 50 shares
The UNP chart turned around so we are holding that one now.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda
Should have covered the housing shorts immediately after the Fed's intervention last week. Clearly people believe that the housing crunch will be contained.
BZH covered at 8.10
DHI covered at 15.75
BZH covered at 8.10
DHI covered at 15.75
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Covering a Few Shorts
Declaring victory on ABK, going to close out the short of 100 shares at $5.85.
Also going to close out the short of 100 shares of MBI at $8.95.
Also going to close out the short of 100 shares of MBI at $8.95.
RIG - gone at $130
Stop order on RIG was executed at $130 - the moral of this story is obey your charts and when the BP charts are as bad as they look right now, NO long positions should be initiated.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Updates
Perhaps we were a little early jumping into RIG. As a result, we will be adding another 20 shares to the position anywhere under $138 as the market is very oversold and this will boucne back quickly.
As for the rest of the portfolio, stay the course on the shorts even though they will most likely bounce - there is another swoon coming as the Fed just does not realize the problems out there in the financial arena.
Let's talk bullish percent charts:
The DJTA Bullish Percent Chart is at 6, that's right 6 (S&P Materials, Technology and Consumer Discretionary are not much better at 16, 18 and 10 respectively). We should have paid closer attention to the pattern that recently developed in the UNP chart as it broke a triple bottom at $122. This stock will be sold on a bounce to $118.
S&P Financials are at 12, they are toast.
S&P Consumer Staples Bullish Percent is at 48 and getting worse. Retail and Restaurants short positions will show up in the model portfolio this week.
S&P 500 just went into Bear Confirmed status at 34. NYSE BP, NDX and NASDAQ are in a very similar position. No longs can be initiated.
S&P Healthcare BP charts is not experiencing as much carnage, this point is worth noting as healthcare may be a good place to consider adding any long exposure. Same comment goes for the Energy arena.
Overall summary, play thi next bounce with some very short term money. Consider adding longs in the healthcare and energy arenas, but definitely add shorts in financials, retail and transportation.
As for the rest of the portfolio, stay the course on the shorts even though they will most likely bounce - there is another swoon coming as the Fed just does not realize the problems out there in the financial arena.
Let's talk bullish percent charts:
The DJTA Bullish Percent Chart is at 6, that's right 6 (S&P Materials, Technology and Consumer Discretionary are not much better at 16, 18 and 10 respectively). We should have paid closer attention to the pattern that recently developed in the UNP chart as it broke a triple bottom at $122. This stock will be sold on a bounce to $118.
S&P Financials are at 12, they are toast.
S&P Consumer Staples Bullish Percent is at 48 and getting worse. Retail and Restaurants short positions will show up in the model portfolio this week.
S&P 500 just went into Bear Confirmed status at 34. NYSE BP, NDX and NASDAQ are in a very similar position. No longs can be initiated.
S&P Healthcare BP charts is not experiencing as much carnage, this point is worth noting as healthcare may be a good place to consider adding any long exposure. Same comment goes for the Energy arena.
Overall summary, play thi next bounce with some very short term money. Consider adding longs in the healthcare and energy arenas, but definitely add shorts in financials, retail and transportation.
Long Positions are Dwindling
ADBE - a long standing long hit our stop point of $38 and has been booted from the model portfolio.
GPS - has gone from a winner to a loser in the blink of an eye. While it has not triggered the stop at $17, the fact that it touched $17.02 make me say, less optimistic it will still be in the portfolio when this coming Wednesday rolls around.
GPS - has gone from a winner to a loser in the blink of an eye. While it has not triggered the stop at $17, the fact that it touched $17.02 make me say, less optimistic it will still be in the portfolio when this coming Wednesday rolls around.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
RIG - Short Term Trade
The carnage is getting very widespread and it feels like we should be picking at a few longs for a short term trade. A position in RIG will be established in the model portfolio at any price under 141, depends on the open.
50 shares will be added with a price target of $163 and a stop point of $130. The UD is slightly above 2 in this case. While the UD ratio is a little on the low side, the $138 point seen early yesterday looks like a wash out point.
50 shares will be added with a price target of $163 and a stop point of $130. The UD is slightly above 2 in this case. While the UD ratio is a little on the low side, the $138 point seen early yesterday looks like a wash out point.
Greedy on Our Shorts?
It feels that way but the charts are saying there is still more downside to MBI, ABK, BZH, DHI and MTG.
STX - Gone
Stopped out of the STX position at $25.50 on 12/31. Since this post is way late, will penalize the portfolio by a buck for the sake of honesty - stopped out at $24.50
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)