Wednesday, April 30, 2008
E*Trade - Buy
Initiating one more Long position in the Model Portfolio - we are buying 500 shares of ETFC at a price of $4 or better. The stop goes in at $3.25 and our target is $10 - UD of 8.
Monday, April 28, 2008
More Executions
T - 250 shares at $38.50
NSC - 100 shares at $60.30
CVS - 150 shares at $41.20
VZ - 150 shares at $38
NKE - 75 shares at $68.10
FRE - 250 shares shorted at $27.40
NSC - 100 shares at $60.30
CVS - 150 shares at $41.20
VZ - 150 shares at $38
NKE - 75 shares at $68.10
FRE - 250 shares shorted at $27.40
CCE Stopped Out
In the excitement of declaring that we are in a new bull market, we neglected to note that CCE broke down, we are stopped out at 22.5.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
4/28 Positions To Initiate / Market Summary
As of 4/25, we are in full bull mode - the bullish percent charts are telling you to get long with your available cash. There are still two sectors which will provide shorting opportunities (Healthcare and Financials) but those positions should be selected carefully and played with tight stops since we are in the early stages of a bull run.
A new buy signal from deep in the depths of the BP charts was given on the S&P Telecom sector. As a result, priority will be given to initiate the following buy:
T - Buy at 38.5 or better, target of 52 and stop at 36.5 - UD of 6.75
VZ - looks ready to break out, but initiating a buy now will break a trading rule as the chart is showing a downside target - we will buy on a break of 38 as the upside is to 48 at a minimum, but likely higher.
In order to diversify, we are pruning back our 2 largest winners slightly:
Sell 20 shares of MA, leaves us with 30 shares
Sell 20 shares of UNP, leaves us with 30 shares
Long Positions to be Initiated:
ko - buy at 59.5, target of 90, stop at 56 - UD of 9.7
cvs - buy at 41, target of 64, stop at 37 - UD of 5.75
fdx - buy at 94.5, target of 130, stop at 92 - UD of 14.20
rtn - buy at 64.5, target of 88, stop at 61 - UD of 6.7
nsc - buy at 60 or better, target of 85, stop at 54 - UD of 4.16
nke - buy at 68.5 or better, target of 83, stop at 65 - UD of 4.14
Short Candidates to be Inititiated
fnm - short at 30.75, target 18, stop at 33 - UD of 5.6
fre - short at 28, target of 18, stop at 29 - UD of 10
fed - short at 16, target of 3, stop at 18 - UD of 6.5
A new buy signal from deep in the depths of the BP charts was given on the S&P Telecom sector. As a result, priority will be given to initiate the following buy:
T - Buy at 38.5 or better, target of 52 and stop at 36.5 - UD of 6.75
VZ - looks ready to break out, but initiating a buy now will break a trading rule as the chart is showing a downside target - we will buy on a break of 38 as the upside is to 48 at a minimum, but likely higher.
In order to diversify, we are pruning back our 2 largest winners slightly:
Sell 20 shares of MA, leaves us with 30 shares
Sell 20 shares of UNP, leaves us with 30 shares
Long Positions to be Initiated:
ko - buy at 59.5, target of 90, stop at 56 - UD of 9.7
cvs - buy at 41, target of 64, stop at 37 - UD of 5.75
fdx - buy at 94.5, target of 130, stop at 92 - UD of 14.20
rtn - buy at 64.5, target of 88, stop at 61 - UD of 6.7
nsc - buy at 60 or better, target of 85, stop at 54 - UD of 4.16
nke - buy at 68.5 or better, target of 83, stop at 65 - UD of 4.14
Short Candidates to be Inititiated
fnm - short at 30.75, target 18, stop at 33 - UD of 5.6
fre - short at 28, target of 18, stop at 29 - UD of 10
fed - short at 16, target of 3, stop at 18 - UD of 6.5
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
4/7 Trading Thoughts - Target List Updated
A number of patterns have developed, some stocks broke down, some ran away. here is an updated list of the targets:
KO, long with a target of $90
CVS, long with a target of $64
UPS, long with a target of $88
FDX, long with a target of $130
MMM, long with a target of $92
RTN, long with a target of $88
NSC, long with a target of $85
PPG, long with a target of $80
ROH, long with a target of $70
LOW, long with a target of $39
NKE, long with a target of $83
YUM, long with a target of $59
TJX, long with a target of $51
FO, long with a target of $95
Ran away - CAT, DE, MON, DD, FCX
Broke Down - GE, LMT, WY, ATI
KO, long with a target of $90
CVS, long with a target of $64
UPS, long with a target of $88
FDX, long with a target of $130
MMM, long with a target of $92
RTN, long with a target of $88
NSC, long with a target of $85
PPG, long with a target of $80
ROH, long with a target of $70
LOW, long with a target of $39
NKE, long with a target of $83
YUM, long with a target of $59
TJX, long with a target of $51
FO, long with a target of $95
Ran away - CAT, DE, MON, DD, FCX
Broke Down - GE, LMT, WY, ATI
Recent Trades and Thoughts
Sorry for the gap in postings, was on vacation through the middle of last week.
MTG turned around, the short position was closed yesterday at $13.
The following longs were executed late last week:
50 shares of DVN @109.77 on 4/11
100 shares of V @ 66 on 4/16
Taking a closer look at the retailers and some transports as new buys on a pullback since we missed the optimal opportunity on most.
MTG turned around, the short position was closed yesterday at $13.
The following longs were executed late last week:
50 shares of DVN @109.77 on 4/11
100 shares of V @ 66 on 4/16
Taking a closer look at the retailers and some transports as new buys on a pullback since we missed the optimal opportunity on most.
Sunday, April 6, 2008
4/7/08 Market Assessment and Trading Plan
The volatility continues, but the S&P 100, S&P 500, NYSE, NDX and the DJIA Bullish Percent charts are in Bull Alert status - we are heading higher folks. The market is a little overbought here and we will be timing our buys, but the next dip will most likely be less scary and steep than the ones we have become used to over the past six months.
The NASDAQ BP chart just entered into the Bull Confirmed status, and while the Technology and Healthcare charts are not good right now, expect that to turn shortly.
The following industries look ripe for the picking:
Transports - BP trend is Bull Confirmed with upside left. However, with BNI (new target of $117) and UNP (new target $155) in the portfolio already, am reluctant to add to the exposure here.
Consumer Staples - Now in bull confirmed status and breaking out - looking at the following candidates:
WMT, long with a target of $62
KO, long with a target of $90
CVS, long with a target of $64
Industrials- looking at the following candidates:
GE, long with a target of $51
UPS, long with a target of $88
FDX, long with a target of $130
MMM, long with a target of $92
CAT, long with a target of $90
DE, long with a target of $108
LMT, long with a target of $112 (very tight downside)
RTN, long with a target of $88
NSC, long with a target of $85
Materials- looking at the following candidates:
MON, long with a target of $154
DD, long with a target of $63
FCX, long with a target of $139 (need a pullback)
WY, long with a target of $76
PPG, long with a target of $80
ATI, long with a target of $97
ROH, long with a target of $70 (needs to hit $58)
Consumer Discretionary - looking at the following candidates:
LOW, long with a target of $39
NKE, long with a target of $83
YUM, long with a target of $59
BBY, long with a target of $54
TJX, long with a target of $51
FO, long with a target of $95 (needs a pull back)
JCG, long with a target of $59
HOT, long with a target of $69
GPS, long with a target of $32
Also looking at adding Visa (V) to the mix with a small weight. Although the trading history is virtually non-existent, this one has the potential to really move.
Lastly, new target for the MTG short is $2.
The NASDAQ BP chart just entered into the Bull Confirmed status, and while the Technology and Healthcare charts are not good right now, expect that to turn shortly.
The following industries look ripe for the picking:
Transports - BP trend is Bull Confirmed with upside left. However, with BNI (new target of $117) and UNP (new target $155) in the portfolio already, am reluctant to add to the exposure here.
Consumer Staples - Now in bull confirmed status and breaking out - looking at the following candidates:
WMT, long with a target of $62
KO, long with a target of $90
CVS, long with a target of $64
Industrials- looking at the following candidates:
GE, long with a target of $51
UPS, long with a target of $88
FDX, long with a target of $130
MMM, long with a target of $92
CAT, long with a target of $90
DE, long with a target of $108
LMT, long with a target of $112 (very tight downside)
RTN, long with a target of $88
NSC, long with a target of $85
Materials- looking at the following candidates:
MON, long with a target of $154
DD, long with a target of $63
FCX, long with a target of $139 (need a pullback)
WY, long with a target of $76
PPG, long with a target of $80
ATI, long with a target of $97
ROH, long with a target of $70 (needs to hit $58)
Consumer Discretionary - looking at the following candidates:
LOW, long with a target of $39
NKE, long with a target of $83
YUM, long with a target of $59
BBY, long with a target of $54
TJX, long with a target of $51
FO, long with a target of $95 (needs a pull back)
JCG, long with a target of $59
HOT, long with a target of $69
GPS, long with a target of $32
Also looking at adding Visa (V) to the mix with a small weight. Although the trading history is virtually non-existent, this one has the potential to really move.
Lastly, new target for the MTG short is $2.
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