However, we are having trouble dealing with the volatility.
Have numerous short and long opportunities but will revisit on Monday 7/21
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Covered Some Shorts, Let Go of Energy
MA - $270 on 7/16
DVN - $100 on 7/18
EP - $18.75 on 7/18
WYNN - the stock has turned around. While we do not believe in the fundamentals, we believe in the chart - stop in at $90.50.
JNJ - Bought 125 shares at $68 on 7/18
DVN - $100 on 7/18
EP - $18.75 on 7/18
WYNN - the stock has turned around. While we do not believe in the fundamentals, we believe in the chart - stop in at $90.50.
JNJ - Bought 125 shares at $68 on 7/18
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Friday Executions
Positions Closed:
Sold 300 shares of BJS at $30.25
Sold 50 shares of HAL at $48.25
Covered FNM and FRE into the morning's silliness. No point in overthinking situations like this - declare victory and move on. Covered at $9.25 and 6.25 respectively.
Gonna let DVN run, aim for a higher exit point - around $113
Truth be told, expected WYNN and MA to roast the portfolio today and force some covering transactions based on pre-market trading. However, their weakness is showing through - consider the following:
MA got added to the S&P 500 and was only able to eke out a 1.64% gain on the day. That means there were an awful lot of sellers waiting to unload shares and the stock is going to continue its downward trend. Long term, this stock is goign to be a big winner, but let's buy shares when the stock is around $220 rather than endure the pain!
WYNN was up $8.20 on the day to $78.14 on some short covering. To me, it looks like the chart is just setting up another good entry point to add to a short position of get some puts on the sheets. The Las Vegas numbers were so bad that the Macau strength is just not going to be enough to offset the US problems. This is just the tip of the iceberg as the entire casino business is in the toilet. Continue to monitor but do not see the $85 level being broken. In the meantime, we can use this strength to initiate short positions in LVS and/or MGM.
Sold 300 shares of BJS at $30.25
Sold 50 shares of HAL at $48.25
Covered FNM and FRE into the morning's silliness. No point in overthinking situations like this - declare victory and move on. Covered at $9.25 and 6.25 respectively.
New Positions - expect that Drugs and Biotech wil be big winners during the second half of 2008 and that Technology and Industrials/Transports will be big losers over that same period:
Bought 300 shares of PKI at $28.50
Bought 150 shares of WYE at $48.25
Bought 200 shares of VRTX at $33
Sold Short 200 shares of XLNX at $23.50
Sold Short 50 shares of our old friend BNI at $96.75, the stock is heading to $70
Sold Short 100 shares of FDX at $75, that stock is heading into the $50s.
Position UpdatesGonna let DVN run, aim for a higher exit point - around $113
Truth be told, expected WYNN and MA to roast the portfolio today and force some covering transactions based on pre-market trading. However, their weakness is showing through - consider the following:
MA got added to the S&P 500 and was only able to eke out a 1.64% gain on the day. That means there were an awful lot of sellers waiting to unload shares and the stock is going to continue its downward trend. Long term, this stock is goign to be a big winner, but let's buy shares when the stock is around $220 rather than endure the pain!
WYNN was up $8.20 on the day to $78.14 on some short covering. To me, it looks like the chart is just setting up another good entry point to add to a short position of get some puts on the sheets. The Las Vegas numbers were so bad that the Macau strength is just not going to be enough to offset the US problems. This is just the tip of the iceberg as the entire casino business is in the toilet. Continue to monitor but do not see the $85 level being broken. In the meantime, we can use this strength to initiate short positions in LVS and/or MGM.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Repositioning the portfolio
Energy Stocks in general have broken. We will begin scaling out of BJS, DVN and HAL into the next rally. ATW and EP charts are still intact and will be monitored closely.
We will open positions in the drugs and healthcare fields starting today as follows:
PKI - around $29
VRTX - around $33.50
WYE - around $48.50
Althought the portfolio will get roasted today because of two short positions going the other way (MA being added to the S&P 500 and WYNN releasing news that was not negative enough), we will be adding to the short exposure here as follows:
XLNX - around $23.50
BNI - around $97
FDX - around $75.50
MA will be covered if the stock hits $268
We will open positions in the drugs and healthcare fields starting today as follows:
PKI - around $29
VRTX - around $33.50
WYE - around $48.50
Althought the portfolio will get roasted today because of two short positions going the other way (MA being added to the S&P 500 and WYNN releasing news that was not negative enough), we will be adding to the short exposure here as follows:
XLNX - around $23.50
BNI - around $97
FDX - around $75.50
MA will be covered if the stock hits $268
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Should Have Been More Proactive
As we see MA breaking down and V sure to follow.
Sold the remaining stake in MA yesterday ($256.50) and sold V on the close ($79.45). Will look to buy both of them back much lower as they will be long term winners.
FCX has broken down with the rest of the metal and steel stocks and will be sold within the first half hour of today's trading - see downside to $90.
TRN has broken down completely and a stop is currently in at $32 - I would say that it is a long shot that the stock stays in the portfolio even though it will be a long term winner.
UNP - apparently we forgot about the stop mentioned on 6/16 at $74. New stop goes in at $70 as the rails are all broken now.
The energy stocks, while experiencing bad reversals yesterday, are still in tact. We will monitor upside momentum and adjust stops accordingly as the easy money has been made here.
Will add a number of new short positions - hopefully into a market bounce.
Short candidates are:
Financials (C, LEH, MER, BAC, more FNM, more FRE, AIG, BBT, STI, PNC, SCHW, OXPS)
Industrials (GM, CAT, DE)
Technology (WFR)
Casinos (LVS, PENN, MGM)
Retail (Everyone)
Sold the remaining stake in MA yesterday ($256.50) and sold V on the close ($79.45). Will look to buy both of them back much lower as they will be long term winners.
FCX has broken down with the rest of the metal and steel stocks and will be sold within the first half hour of today's trading - see downside to $90.
TRN has broken down completely and a stop is currently in at $32 - I would say that it is a long shot that the stock stays in the portfolio even though it will be a long term winner.
UNP - apparently we forgot about the stop mentioned on 6/16 at $74. New stop goes in at $70 as the rails are all broken now.
The energy stocks, while experiencing bad reversals yesterday, are still in tact. We will monitor upside momentum and adjust stops accordingly as the easy money has been made here.
Will add a number of new short positions - hopefully into a market bounce.
Short candidates are:
Financials (C, LEH, MER, BAC, more FNM, more FRE, AIG, BBT, STI, PNC, SCHW, OXPS)
Industrials (GM, CAT, DE)
Technology (WFR)
Casinos (LVS, PENN, MGM)
Retail (Everyone)
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
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