Saturday, November 1, 2008

TBT - One to Buy on Monday

TBT, the UltraShort Lehman 20 Plus Treasuries ETF is forming a great pattern on the P&F chart. A long position in this stock is simply a bet against US Bonds in the long term.

The stop for the trade (56) is much larger than what is normally acceptable at PTS, but the chart pattern suggests we will be safe once a break of 65 and 66 occur, and occur they will. We will look to raise our stop once the new pattern evolves. The initial upside target for the trade is $83.

Important to note is that the break to 65 will also break the P&F downtrend, starting a new uptrend - very important.

As a result, we will buy 300 shares for the portfolio as close to $64 as possible and anticipate this position being in the portfolio for a long time. While we anticipate this fact, it is still worth remembering that if a pattern breaks down, the loss is taken no questions asked.

No comments: